The FOMC announced that it will maintain the federal funds rate at 0 to .25%. The Federal Open Market Committee continues to believe that economic growth has been “expanding moderately.” The FOMC cautiously noted that although the unemployment rate has been improving it still remains elevated and that inflation has recently picked up. The FOMC maintained its stance that the federal funds rate will likely remain exceptionally low through at least late 2014. There was no hint of a possible QE3.
U.S. durable goods orders fell by $8.8 billion or 4.2% (month-over-month) in March to $202.6 billion. The decline was led by a 47.6% decrease in nondefense aircrafts and parts orders. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.1%.
U.S. consumer confidence fell by 0.3 points (month-over-month) in April to 69.2. The Present Situation Index increased to 51.4 from 49.9, while the Expectations Index fell to 81.1 from 82.5. A reading of 90 indicates a healthy economy.
U.S. existing home sales fell by 2.6% (month-over-month) in March to an annual rate of 4.48 million. First time buyers accounted for 33% of the sales compared to 32% in February. From the houses sold, distressed properties accounted for 29% of the sales compared to 34% in February. Inventory declined by 1.3% to 2.37 million. The median price for all housing types was $163,800, a year-over-year rise of 2.5%. Existing home sales in February were revised higher to an annual rate of 4.60 million.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 386,000 last week. The 4-week moving average rose by 5,500 to 374,750. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 388,000. A weekly jobless claims number below the 400,000 mark is usually an indicator of job growth. Claims have been below this mark twenty times in the past twenty one weeks.
U.S. industrial production was unchanged (month-over-month) in March. Manufacturing output, which accounts for approximately 75% of the total, fell by 0.2%, while mining production rose by 0.2% and the output of utilities increased by 1.5%.
U.S. housing starts fell by 5.8% (month-over-month) in March to an annual rate of 654,000. Single-family homes, which account for approximately 70% of construction, fell by 0.2%, while multifamily homes dropped by 17.0%. Building permits, which measure future building activity, rose by a healthy 4.5%. Economists believe that a healthy housing market requires housing starts to grow at an annual rate of approximately 1.2 million.
The German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment increased by 1.1 points (month-over-month) in April to +23.4. This is the third month in a row that the survey is in optimistic territory.
U.S. retail sales rose by 0.8% (month-over-month) in March to $411.1 billion. The gain was due in part to a 3.0% jump in building material & garden equipment sales and a 1.1% rise in sales at gasoline stations. Year-over-year, retail sales rose by 6.5%. February retail sales were revised lower to a gain of 1.0%.
U.S. CPI rose by 0.3% (month-over-month) in March. The rise was primarily due to a 0.9% jump in the energy index. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, rose by 0.2%. Year-over-year, CPI rose by 2.7%.
German CPI rose by 0.3% (month-over-month) in February. The month-over-month increase was due in part to a 4.0% rise in the price of motor fuels. Year-over-year, CPI rose by 2.1%. The year-over-year increase was due in part to a 6.7% jump in energy prices.
China retail sales rose by 15.2% (year-over-year) in March to 1565.0 billion yuan. Urban retail sales increased by 15.2%, while rural retail sales rose by 14.6%. Month-over-month, retail sales rose by 1.18%.
China industrial production rose by 11.9% (year-over-year) in March. The heavy industry rose by 11.2%, while the light industry increased by 13.9%. Month-over-month, industrial production increased by 1.22%
U.S. producer price index remained unchanged (month-over-month) in March. A 0.3% rise in the food index was offset by a 1.0% fall in the energy index. Year-over-year PPI rose by 2.8%, the smallest gain since June 2010. Core PPI rose by 0.3%.
U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 13,000 to 380,000 last week. The 4-week moving average rose by 4,250 to 368,500. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 367,000. A weekly jobless claims number below the 400,000 mark is usually an indicator of job growth. Claims have been below this mark nineteen times in the past twenty weeks.
Eurozone industrial production rose by 0.5% (month-over-month) in February. Production in Netherlands and Slovakia rose by 13.0% and 2.8%, respectively. However, production in Malta and Sweden fell by 4.6% and 3.6%, respectively. Year-over-year, industrial production fell by 1.8%.
U.S. unemployment decreased from 8.3% to 8.2% in March. Non-farm payrolls rose by 120,000. The private sector grew by 121,000, while government employment fell by 1,000. Non-farm payrolls in February were revised higher from +227,000 to +240,000.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 357,000 last week. The 4-week moving average fell by 4,250 to 361,750. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 363,000. A weekly jobless claims number below the 400,000 mark is usually an indicator of job growth. Claims have been below this mark eighteen times in the past nineteen weeks.
Eurozone CPI is expected to rise by 2.6% (year-over-year) in March. This is a 0.1 percentage point lower than the year-over-year increase in February. The final figure, and month-to-month change, will be released on April 17th.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 359,000 last week. The 4-week moving average fell by 3,500 to 365,000. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 364,000. A weekly jobless claims number below the 400,000 mark is usually an indicator of job growth. Claims have been below this mark seventeen times in the past eighteen weeks.
U.S. GDP was unrevised at an annual rate of 3.0% (quarter-over-quarter) in the fourth quarter.
U.S. durable goods orders rose by $4.5 billion or 2.2% (month-over-month) in February to $211.8 billion. The increase was led by transportation equipment, which rose 3.9% to $57.9 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.6%.
U.S. consumer confidence fell by 1.4 points (month-over-month) in March to 70.2. The Present Situation Index increased to 51.0 from 46.4, while the Expectations Index fell to 83.0 from 88.4. A reading of 90 indicates a healthy economy.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 348,000 last week. The 4-week moving average fell by 1,250 to 355,000. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 353,000. A weekly jobless claims number below the 400,000 mark is usually an indicator of job growth. Claims have been below this mark sixteen times in the past seventeen weeks.
U.S. existing home sales fell by 0.9% (month-over-month) in February to an annual rate of 4.59 million. First time buyers accounted for 32% of the sales compared to 33% in January. From the houses sold, distressed properties accounted for 34% of the sales compared to 35% in January. Inventory rose by 4.3% to 2.43 million. The median price for all housing types was $156,600, a year-over-year rise of 0.3%. Existing home sales in January were revised higher to an annual rate of 4.63 million.
U.S. housing starts fell by 1.1% (month-over-month) in February to an annual rate of 698,000. Single-family homes, which account for approximately 70% of construction, fell by 9.9%, while multifamily homes rose by 21.1%. Building permits, which measure future building activity, rose by a healthy 5.1%. Economists believe that a healthy housing market requires housing starts to grow at an annual rate of approximately 1.2 million.
U.S. industrial production was unchanged (month-over-month) in February. Manufacturing output, which accounts for approximately 75% of the total, rose by 0.3%, while mining production fell by 1.2% and the output of utilities was unchanged. Industrial production in January was upwardly revised to a 0.4% increase.
U.S. CPI rose by 0.4% (month-over-month) in February. The rise was primarily due to a 6% jump in the gasoline index. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, rose by 0.1%. Year-over-year, CPI rose by 2.9%.
U.S. producer price index rose by 0.4% (month-over-month) in February. The rise was due to a 1.3% rise in energy goods, with the gasoline index jumping by 4.3%. Year-over-year PPI rose by 3.3%, the smallest gain since August 2010. Core PPI rose by 0.2%.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 351,000 last week. The 4-week moving average was unchanged 355,750. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 365,000. A weekly jobless claims number below the 400,000 mark is usually an indicator of job growth. Claims have been below this mark fifteen times in the past sixteen weeks.
Eurozone industrial production rose by 0.2% (month-over-month) in January. Production in Germany and Slovakia rose by 1.5% and 6.1%, respectively. However, production in Italy and Finland fell 2.5% and 5.1%, respectively. Month-over-month, production of energy rose by 1.4%, while capital goods rose by 0.7%. Year-over-year, industrial production fell by 1.2%.
Eurozone CPI remained unchanged (month-over-month) in February. Prices for recreation & culture rose by 1.2%, while prices for communcations fell by 0.3%. Year-over-year, CPI rose by 2.7% due to a 9.5% increase in energy, 4.6% rise in transport, and a 4.4% jump in housing. The core inflation rate year-over-year was 1.5%.
The FOMC announced that it will maintain the federal funds rate at 0 to .25%. The Federal Open Market Committee believes that economic growth has been “expanding moderately”, led by an improving labor market. However, the FOMC believes that the recent increase in oil and gas prices will temporarily put pressure on inflation. The FOMC maintained its stance that the federal funds rate will likely remain exceptionally low through at least late 2014. There was no hint of a possible QE3.
U.S. retail sales rose by 1.1% (month-over-month) in February to $407.8 billion. The gain was primarily due to a 3.3% increase in sales at gasoline stations and a 1.6% jump in sales at motor vehicles & parts dealers. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales rose 0.9%. Year-over-year, retail sales rose by 6.5%. January retail sales were revised to a gain of 0.6%.
The German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment increased by 16.0 points (month-over-month) in March to +22.3. This is the second month in a row that the survey is in optimistic territory. Sentiment increased on better than expected domestic demand in Germany.
U.S. unemployment remained unchanged at 8.3% in February. Non-farm payrolls rose by 227,000. The private sector grew by 233,000, led by gains in professional and business services. Government employment fell by 6,000. Non-farm payrolls in January were revised higher from +243,000 to +284,000.
China retail sales rose by 14.7% (year-over-year) in the first two months of 2012 to 3370.0 billion yuan. Urban retail sales increased by 14.7%, while rural retail sales rose by 14.6%. Month-over-month, retail sales rose by 1.56%.
China CPI rose by 3.2% (year-over-year) in February. This is the lowest year-on-year gain since June 2010. Food prices jumped by 6.2% compared to a 10.5% rise in January, while non-food prices rose by 1.7%. Inflation in the first two months of 2012 has risen by 3.9% year-over-year. Month-over-month, prices decreased by 0.1%.
China industrial production rose by 11.4% (year-over-year) in the first two months of 2012. Month-over-month, retail sales rose by 0.70%.
China PPI remained unchanged (year-over-year) in February.
U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 362,000 last week. The 4-week moving average increased by 250 to 355,000. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 354,000. A weekly jobless claims number below the 400,000 mark is usually an indicator of job growth. Claims have been below this mark fourteen times in the past fifteen weeks.
The European Central Bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 1.00%. The deposit and marginal lending rates were also unchanged at .25% and 1.75%, respectively.
Eurozone GDP was unrevised at -0.3% (quarter-over-quarter) in the fourth quarter. Household consumption and exports both fell by 0.4%, while investment dropped by 0.7%. Imports, however, declined by 1.2%.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 351,000 last week. The 4-week moving average decreased by 5,500 to 354,000. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 353,000. A weekly jobless claims number below the 400,000 mark is usually an indicator of job growth. Claims have been below this mark thirteen times in the past fourteen weeks.
Eurozone unemployment rose from an upwardly revised 10.6% in December to 10.7% in January. Eurostat estimated that 16.925 million were unemployed in January, 191,000 more than in December. Among the eurozone countries, Austria recorded the lowest rate at 4.0%, while Spain had the highest rate at 23.3%. Eurozone unemployment in January 2011 was 9.5%.
Eurozone CPI is expected to rise by 2.7% (year-over-year) in February. The final figure, and month-to-month change, will be released on March 14th.
U.S. GDP was revised 0.2 percentage points higher to an annual rate of 3.0% (quarter-over-quarter) in the fourth quarter. The upward revision was due to a larger than expected increase in nonresidential fixed investment and personal consumption and a more than expected decline in imports.
Eurozone CPI fell by 0.8% (month-over-month) in January. Prices for clothing fell by -14.1%, while prices for recreation & culture dropped -2.0%. Year-over-year, CPI rose by 2.6% due to a 9.2% increase in energy, 4.4% rise in transport, and a 4.5% jump in housing. The core inflation rate year-over-year was 1.5%.
U.S. consumer confidence rose by 9.3 points (month-over-month) in February to 70.8. Consumer confidence is now at a one-year high. The Present Situation Index increased to 45.0 from 38.8, while the Expectations Index jumped to 88.0 from 76.7. A reading of 90 indicates a healthy economy.
U.S. durable goods orders fell by $8.6 billion or 4.0% (month-over-month) in January to $206.1 billion. The rise was primarily due to a 6.1% decrease in transportation equipment. Excluding transportation, new orders fell by 3.2%. December durable goods orders were revised higher to an increase of 3.2%.
U.S. existing home sales rose by 4.3% (month-over-month) in January to an annual rate of 4.57 million. First time buyers accounted for 33% of the sales compared to 31% in December. From the houses sold, distressed properties accounted for 35% of the sales compared to 32% in December. Inventory fell by 0.4% to 2.31 million, the least since March 2005. The median price for all housing types was $154,700, a year-over-year fall of 2.0%. Existing home sales in December were revised sharply lower to an annual rate of 4.38 million.
U.S. CPI rose by 0.2% (month-over-month) in January. The indexes for energy and food both rose by 0.2%. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, rose by 0.2%. Year-over-year, CPI rose by 2.9%.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 13,000 to 348,000 last week. The 4-week moving average decreased by 1,750 to 365,250. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 361,000. A weekly jobless claims number below the 400,000 mark is usually an indicator of job growth. Claims have been below this mark eleven times in the past twelve weeks.
U.S. producer price index rose by 0.1% (month-over-month) in January. The rise was partially offset by a 0.5% decline in energy goods and a 0.3% drop in consumer foods. Year-over-year PPI rose by 4.1%. Core PPI rose by 0.4%, its largest increase since July 2011. Approximately 40 percent of the rise was due to a 2.0 jump in prices for pharmaceutical preparations.
U.S. housing starts rose by 1.5% (month-over-month) in January to an annual rate of 699,000. Single-family homes, which account for approximately 70% of construction, fell by 1.0%, while apartment buildings rose by 14.4%. Building permits, which measure future building activity, rose by 0.7%. Economists believe that a healthy housing market requires housing starts to grow at an annual rate of approximately 1.2 million.
U.S. industrial production was unchanged (month-over-month) in January. Manufacturing output, which accounts for approximately 75% of the total, rose by 0.7% due to a 6.8% rise in motor vehicles and parts. Gains were offset, however, by a 1.8% decline in mining and a 2.5% drop in utilities. Industrial production in December was upwardly revised to a 1.0% increase.
U.S. retail sales rose by 0.4% (month-over-month) in January to $401.4 billion. The gain was primarily due to a 1.4% increase in sales at gasoline stations and a 2.0% jump in sales at general merchandise stores. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales rose 0.7%. Year-over-year, retail sales rose by 5.8%. December retail sales were revised to unchanged.
The German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment increased by 27.0 points (month-over-month) in February to +5.4. This is the first time in nine months that the index is in optimistic territory. Sentiment increased on improving U.S. economic data and further progress in stabilizing the Greek economy.
German CPI fell by 0.4% (month-over-month) in January. The month-over-month decline was due in part to a 14.8% drop in accomodation services and a 4.2% decrease in air tickets. Year-over-year, CPI rose by 2.1%. The year-over-year increase was due in part to a 7.2% jump in energy prices.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 15,000 to 358,000 last week. The 4-week moving average decreased by 11,000 to 366,250. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 373,000. A weekly jobless claims number below the 400,000 mark is usually an indicator of job growth. Claims have been below this mark ten times in the past eleven weeks.
The European Central Bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 1.00%. The deposit and marginal lending rates were also unchanged at .25% and 1.75%, respectively.
US unemployment decreased from 8.5% to 8.3% in January. Non-farm payrolls rose by 243,000. Government employment fell by 14,000. Non-farm payrolls in December were revised higher from +200,000 to +203,000.
Eurozone retail sales fell by 0.4% (month-over-month) in December. Food, drinks, and tobacco declined by 0.2%, while the non-food sector fell by 0.1%. Retail sales in Germany and Spain fell by 1.4% and 0.8%, respectively. Year-over-year, retail sales dropped by 1.6%.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 12,000 to 367,000 last week. The 4-week moving average decreased by 2,000 to 375,750. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 379,000. A weekly jobless claims number below the 400,000 mark is usually an indicator of job growth. Claims have been below this mark nine times in the past ten weeks.
Eurozone CPI is expected to rise by 2.7% (year-over-year) in January. The final figure, and month-to-month change, will be released on February 29th.
U.S. consumer confidence fell by 3.7 points (month-over-month) in January to 61.1. The Present Situation Index dropped to 38.4 from 46.5, while the Expectations Index declined to 76.2 from 77.0. A reading of 90 indicates a healthy economy.
Eurozone unemployment was unchanged at 10.4% in December. Eurostat estimated that 16.469 million were unemployed in December, 20,000 more than in November. Among the eurozone countries, Austria recorded the lowest rate at 4.1%, while Spain had the highest rate at 22.9%. Eurozone unemployment in December 2010 was 10.0%.
German CPI is expected to decrease by 0.4% (month-over-month) in January. Year-over-year, CPI is expected to increase by 2.0%. The final estimate will be released on February 10th.
U.S. GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.8% (quarter-over-quarter) in the fourth quarter. The rise was due in part to a 2.0% jump in personal consumption and a 4.7% increase in exports. Gains, however, were capped by a 7.3% decrease in federal government consumption expenditures.
U.S. durable goods orders increased by $6.2 billion or 3.0% (month-over-month) in December to $214.5 billion. The rise was primarily due to a 5.5% increase in transportation equipment, with new orders of nondefense aircrafts and parts jumping 18.9%. Excluding transportation, new orders rose by 2.1%. November durable goods orders were revised higher to an increase of 4.3%.
U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 21,000 to 377,000 last week. The 4-week moving average decreased by 2,500 to 377,500. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 356,000.
The FOMC announced that it will maintain the federal funds rate at 0 to .25%. The Federal Open Market Committee believes that economic growth has been “expanding moderately”, with some improvement in the labor market. Household spending has continued to rise, but business investment and the housing sector remain weak. The FOMC believes that growth in the coming quarters will be “moderate”. Somewhat shocking, the FOMC also announced that the federal funds rate will likely remain exceptionally low through at least 2014. An inflation rate target of 2 percent (annual) was also established.
The Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate unchanged at around 0 to 0.1%. The BOJ stated that economic activity has been essentially flat due to “overseas economies” and a rise in the yen. Japan’s activity is expected to remain flat in the near future. Economic growth in fiscal 2011 is likely to be lower than what was forecasted in October.
U.S. existing home sales rose by 5.0% (month-over-month) in December to an annual rate of 4.61 million. Existing home sales in November were revised lower to an annual rate of 4.39 million.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 50,000 to 352,000 last week. The 4-week moving average decreased by 3,500 to 379,000. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 402,000.
U.S. housing starts fell by 4.1% (month-over-month) in December to an annual rate of 657,000. Single-family homes, which account for approximately 70% of construction, rose by 4.4%, while apartment buildings declined by 20.4%. Building permits, which measure future building activity, fell by 0.1%. Economists believe that a healthy housing market requires housing starts to grow at an annual rate of approximately 1.2 million.
U.S. CPI was unchanged (month-over-month) in December. A 1.3% decline in the energy index was offset by a 0.2% rise in both the food and shelter index. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, rose by 0.1%. Year-over-year, CPI rose by 3.0%.
U.S. producer price index declined by 0.1% (month-over-month) in December. The drop was due to a 0.8% decline in both energy goods and consumer foods. Year-over-year PPI rose by 4.8%. Core PPI rose by 0.3%, approximately 30 percent of the rise was due to 0.9% rise in the price of light motor trucks.
The German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment increased by 32.2 points (month-over-month) in December to -21.6. Sentiment over the next six months increased on better than expected U.S. economic data and a drop in Italian and Spanish bond yields.
Eurozone CPI rose by 0.3% (month-over-month) in December. Prices for recreation and culture rose by 2.0%, while prices for hotels and restaurants increased by 1.0%. Year-over-year, CPI rose by 2.7% due to a 9.7% increase in energy, 4.9% rise in transport, and a 3.8% jump in alcohol & tobacco. The core inflation rate year-over-year was 1.6%.
China industrial production rose by 12.8% (year-over-year) in December. The heavy industry rose by 13.0%, while the light industry increased by 12.6%. Textile manufacturing rose by 12.7%. Month-over-month, industrial production increased by 1.10%.
China retail sales rose by 18.1% (year-over-year) in December to 1774.0 billion yuan. Food and beverages increased by 18.6%, while petroleum and related products jumped by 31.1%. Automobile sales grew at a slower pace of 10.2%. Urban retail sales increased by 18.2%, while rural retail sales rose by 17.8%. Month-over-month, retail sales rose by 1.41%.
US unemployment decreased from 8.7% to 8.5% in December. Non-farm payrolls rose by 200,000. Government employment fell by 12,000. Non-farm payrolls in November were revised lower from +120,000 to +100,000.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 15,000 to 372,000 last week. The 4-week moving average decreased by 3,250 to 373,250. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 387,000.
The German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment increased by 1.4 points (month-over-month) in December to -53.8. This is the first time in ten months that sentiment has rose, signaling that a possible bottom has been reached.
Japan tertiary index rose by 0.7% (month-over-month) in October to 98.7. The increase was due to a 4.2% jump in computer programming and software services. However, scientific research, professional and technical services fell by 2.8%.
German CPI remained unchanged (month-over-month) in October. Year-over-year, CPI rose by 2.4%. The year-over-year increase was due in part to a 11.1% jump in energy prices. This is the tenth consecutive month that the CPI was above 2%.
China industrial production rose by 12.4% (year-over-year) in November.
China CPI rose by 4.2% (year-over-year) in November.
China PPI rose by 2.7% (year-over-year) in November.
China retail sales rose by 17.3% (year-over-year) in November.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 23,000 to 381,000 last week. The 4-week moving average decreased by 3,000 to 393,250. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 404,000.
The European Central Bank decreased its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.00%. The deposit and marginal lending rates were also lowered by 25 basis points to .25% and 1.75%, respectively.
Eurozone GDP was unrevised at +0.2% (quarter-over-quarter) in the third quarter.
Eurozone retail sales rose by 0.4% (month-over-month) in October. Food, drinks, and tobacco rose by 0.2%, while the non-food sector grew by 0.5%. Retail sales in Germany and France rose by 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively. Year-over-year, retail sales dropped by 0.4%.
US unemployment decreased from 9.0% to 8.6% in November. Non-farm payrolls rose by 120,000. Government employment fell by 20,000. Non-farm payrolls in October were revised higher from +80,000 to +100,000.
U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 402,000 last week. The 4-week moving average increased by 500 to 395,750. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 396,000.
Eurozone unemployment rose by .1 percentage points to 10.3% in October. Eurostat estimated that 16.294 million were unemployed in October, 126,000 more than in September. Among the eurozone countries, Austria recorded the lowest rate at 4.1%, while Spain had the highest rate at 22.8%. Eurozone unemployment in October 2010 was 9.8%.
Japan industrial production rose 2.4% (month-over-month) in October. The output exceeded the forecast of 1.0%. The better than expected rebound is partly due to increased production in the automotive industry in effort to make up for production lost after the earthquake. The flooding in Thailand did not cause much disruption this month, however, analysts expect output in November to fall by 0.1% due to the delayed impact of the flood.
U.S. consumer confidence shot up by 15.1 points (month-over-month) in November to 56. The Present Situation Index increased to 38.3 from 27.1, while the Expectations Index rose to 67.8 from 50.0. October CCI was revised higher to 40.9. A reading of 90 indicates a healthy economy.
German CPI is expected to remain unchanged (month-over-month) in November. Year-over-year, CPI is expected to increase by 2.4%. The final estimate will be released on December 9th.
Japan CPI rose by 0.1% (month-over-month) in October. However, core CPI, which excludes fresh food prices, fell by 0.1% (year-over-year).
U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 2,000 to 393,000 last week. The 4-week moving average decreased by 3,250 to 394,250. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 391,000.
German GDP rose by 0.5% (quarter-over-quarter) in the third quarter. The primary reason for the increase was a jump in domestic demand. Household and general government consumption was 0.8% and 0.6% higher, respectively, than in the second quarter. GDP in the third quarter was revised higher to a gain of 0.3%.
U.S. durable goods orders decreased by $1.4 billion or 0.7% (month-over-month) in October to $197.7 billion.
U.S. GDP was revised 0.5 percentage points lower to an increase (annual rate) of 2.0% (quarter-over-quarter) in the third quarter.
U.S. existing home sales rose by 1.4% (month-over-month) in October to an annual rate of 4.97 million. 33% of NAR members reported contract failures compared to 18% in September. On a positive note, unsold inventory fell by 2.2% to 3.33 million existing homes. The median price for all housing types was $162,500, a year-over-year fall of 4.7%. Existing home sales in September were revised lower to an annual rate of 4.90 million.
U.S. housing starts fell by 0.3% (month-over-month) in October to an annual rate of 628,000. Single-family homes, which account for approximately 70% of construction, rose by 3.9%, while apartment buildings declined by 8.3%. September housing starts were revised lower to an annual rate of 630,000. On a positive note, building permits, which measure future building activity, rose by 10.9%. Economists believe that a healthy housing market requires housing starts to grow at an annual rate of approximately 1.2 million.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 388,000 last week. The 4-week moving average decreased by 4,000 to 396,750. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 393,000.
U.S. industrial production rose by 0.7% (month-over-month) in October. Manufacturing output, which accounts for approximately 75% of the total, increased by 0.5%. Mining production rose by 2.3% and utilities fell by 0.1%. Industrial production in September was revised to a 0.1% drop.
U.S. CPI decreased by 0.1% (month-over-month) in October. The decline was primarily due to a 3.9% drop in the gasoline index. In addition, the food index slowed to a gain of 0.1% due to a 1.7% decline in the fruits and vegetables group. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, rose by 0.1%. Year-over-year, CPI rose by 3.5%.
Eurozone CPI remained unchanged (month-over-month) in October. Prices for clothing rose 2.6%, while prices for education fell 0.3%. Year-over-year, CPI rose by 3.0% due to a 12.4% increase in energy, 5.8% rise in transport and a 4.4% jump in alcohol & tobacco. The core inflation rate year-over-year was 1.6%.
U.S. retail sales rose by 0.5% (month-over-month) in October to $397.7 billion. The gain was primarily due to a 3.7% increase in sales at electronics and appliance stores. Year-over-year, retail sales rose by 7.2%. September retail sales were unrevised.
U.S. producer price index declined by 0.3% (month-over-month) in October. The drop was primarily due to a 1.4% decrease in energy goods. Core PPI was unchanged after ten straight months of increases.
The German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment dropped by 6.9 points (month-over-month) in November to -55.2. This is the ninth month in a row that the index has fallen. The political crises in Italy and Greece are adding further uncertainty to the eurozone recovery.
Eurozone GDP rose 0.2% (quarter-over-quarter) in the third quarter. Growth in Germany and France rose by 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.
Eurozone industrial production fell by 2.0% (month-over-month) in September. Production in Portugal and Germany fell by 5.8% and 2.9%, respectively. Month-over-month, production of capital goods fell by 4.2%, while durable consumer goods dropped by 3.8%. Year-over-year, industrial production rose 2.2%. Last month’s figure was revised higher to a gain of 1.4%.
Japan tertiary index fell by 0.7% (month-over-month) in September to 97.7. Analysts were expecting a decrease of 0.5%. The drop was due to weak domestic sales of flat screen TV’s and air conditioners, as well a major typhoons hitting parts of Japan during the month. Wholesale and Retail Trade fell by 2.2%, while Scientific Research, Professional and Technical Services rose by 3.1%.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 390,000 last week. The 4-week moving average decreased by 5,250 to 404,500. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 400,000.
German CPI remained unchanged (month-over-month) in October. Year-over-year, CPI rose by 2.5%. The year-over-year increase was due in part to a 11.1% jump in energy prices. This is the ninth consecutive month that the CPI was above 2%.
China industrial production rose by 13.2% (year-over-year) in October.
China’s Producer Price Index rose by 5.0% (year-over-year) in October. Month-over-month, producer prices fell by 0.7%.
China’s Consumer Price Index rose by 5.5% (year-over-year) in October. China’s inflation has been decelerating since it rose by 6.5% in July. With this downward trend, economists expect China to loosen its monetary policy in order to boost growth.
China retail sales rose by 17.2% (year-over-year) in October.
Eurozone retail sales fell by 0.7% (month-over-month) in September. Food, drinks, and tobacco remained unchanged, while the non-food sector fell by 0.8%. Retail sales in Portugal and Slovenia fell by 3.7% and 2.1%, respectively. Year-over-year, retail sales dropped 1.5%.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 397,000 last week. The 4-week moving average decreased by 2,000 to 404,500. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 406,000.
The European Central Bank decreased its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%. The deposit and marginal lending rates were also lowered by 25 basis points to .50% and 2.00%, respectively. The ECB decided to cut its rates in order to combat slow growth and possibly a mild recession.
The FOMC announced that it will maintain the federal funds rate at 0 to .25%. The Federal Open Market Committee believes that economic growth has “strengthened somewhat” in the third quarter. However, the labor market and investment in nonresidential structures remains weak. Household spending is increasing at a “somewhat faster” pace, while the housing sector remains depressed. The FOMC still believes that there are “significant downside risks” to the economic outlook. On a positive note, the FOMC believes that inflation has moderated.
Eurozone CPI is expected to rise by 3.0% (year-over-year) in October. The final figure, and month-to-month change, will be released on November 16th.
Eurozone unemployment rose by .2 percentage points to 10.2% in September. Eurostat estimated that 16.198 million were unemployed in September, 188,000 more than in August. Among the eurozone countries, Austria recorded the lowest rate at 3.9%, while Spain and Greece had the highest rates at 22.6% and 17.6%, respectively. Eurozone unemployment in September 2010 was 9.6%.
Japan unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in September. Analysts were expecting an increase to 4.4%. This was the first time since the Earthquake that the government has included the three prefectures (Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima) in its reading due to the earthquake. The better-than-expected rate is a strong signal for a recovering economy.
Japan industrial production fell 4% (month-over-month) in September. This was the first time the index has fallen since the Earthquake. The decrease comes as transport equipment, general machinery and electrical machinery all failed to post strong gains. Industrial production is expected to rise by 2.3% in October.
U.S. GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.5% (quarter-over-quarter) in the third quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for approximately 70% of GDP, rose 2.5% after a 0.7% rise in the second quarter. Nonresidential fixed investment also improved, jumping 16.3% after a 10.3% rise in the previous quarter. Exports and government spending also contributed to the third quarter’s improvement.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 402,000 last week. The 4-week moving average increased by 1,750 to 405,500. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 404,000.
German CPI is expected to remain unchanged (month-over-month) in October. Year-over-year, CPI is expected to increase by 2.5%. The final estimate will be released on November 10th.
The Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate unchanged at around 0 to 0.1%. The BOJ stated that it will “enhance monetary easing” by increasing the size of the Asset Purchase Program from 50 trillion yen to 55 trillion yen. The bank also stated that supply-side constraints “have been gradually resolved”.
U.S. durable goods orders decreased by $1.5 billion or 0.8% (month-over-month) in September to $200.3 billion. This is the third decrease in four months. The decline was due to a drop in transportation equipment, which fell 7.5% to $49.6 billion after rising for two consecutive months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased by 1.7%. August durable goods orders were unrevised at a 0.1% decline.
U.S. consumer confidence fell by 6.6 points (month-over-month) in October to 39.8. The Present Situation Index declined to 26.3 from 33.3, while the Expectations Index dropped to 48.7 from 55.1. September CCI was revised higher to 46.4. A reading of 90 indicates a healthy economy.
U.S. existing home sales fell by 3.0% (month-over-month) in September to an annual rate of 4.91 million. Twice as many NAR members (18%) reported contract failures compared to a year ago. The median price for all housing types was $165,400, a year-over-year fall of 3.5%. Existing home sales in August were revised higher to an annual rate of 5.06 million.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 403,000 last week. The 4-week moving average decreased by 6,250 to 403,000. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 409,000.
U.S. housing starts rose by 15.0% (month-over-month) in September to an annual rate of 658,000. Single-family homes, which account for approximately 70% of construction, rose by 1.7%, while apartment buildings surged by 53.4%. However, building permits, which measure future building activity, dipped by 5.0%. August housing starts were revised higher to an annual rate of 571,000. Economists believe that a healthy housing market requires housing starts to grow at an annual rate of approximately 1.2 million.
U.S. CPI rose 0.3% (month-over-month) in September. Food and energy prices rose by 0.4% and 2.0%, respectively. Core CPI rose by 0.1%. Year-over-year, CPI rose by 3.9%.
The German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment dropped by 5.0 points (month-over-month) in October to -48.3. Fears over Germany’s domestic economy are now growing due to a decrease in retail sales and industrial new orders.
U.S. industrial production rose 0.2% (month-over-month) in September. Manufacturing output increased by 0.4%, mostly due to strong auto sales, while mining rose by 0.8%. Utilities dropped by -1.8% as temperatures moderated in September. Industrial production in August was revised to unchanged at 0%.
U.S. retail sales jumped by 1.1% (month-over-month) in September to $395.5 billion. The largest gain in seven months was primarily due to a 3.6% increase in motor vehicle and parts sales. Year-over-year, retail sales rose by 7.9%. August retail sales were revised higher to a 0.3% rise.
Eurozone CPI rose by 0.8% (month-over-month) in September. Prices for clothing and education increased by 14.1% and 1.0%, respectively. Year-over-year, CPI rose by 3.0% due to a 12.4% increase in energy, 5.9% rise in transport and a 5.0% jump in housing. This is the largest year-over-year increase since October 2008. The core inflation rate year-over-year was 1.6%.
China PPI rose by 6.5% (year-over-year) in September.
China CPI rose by 6.1% (year-over-year) in September.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 404,000 last week. The 4-week moving average decreased by 7,000 to 408,000. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 405,000.
German CPI rose by 0.1% (month-over-month) in September. The month-over-month increase was due in part to a 5.1% jump in autumn/winter footwear and clothing prices and a 1.6% rise in energy prices. Year-over-year, CPI rose by 2.6%, the largest increase since September 2008. The year-over-year increase was due in part to a 11.2% jump in energy prices. Excluding energy prices, CPI rose by 1.5%. This is the eighth consecutive month that the CPI was above 2%.
Japan tertiary index fell by 0.2％ (month-over-month) in August to 98.1. The drop was driven by a 1.1% decline in wholesale and retail trade, and a 1.1% fall in electricity, gas, heat supply and water.
Eurozone industrial production rose by 1.2% (month-over-month) in August. Economists were expecting production to drop by 0.8%. Portugal led the way with an 8.2% increase, while Germany took a 1.0% hit. Production in Ireland and Italy rose by 4.4% and 4.3%, respectively. Month-over-month, production of capital goods rose by 2.1%, while durable consumer goods remained stable. Year-over-year, industrial production rose 5.3%. Last month’s figure was revised higher to a gain of 1.1%.
US unemployment remained unchanged at 9.1% in September. Non-farm payrolls rose by 103,000. However, 45,000 of these “new hires” were Verizon Communications workers who had been on strike in August. Government employment fell by 34,000. Approximately 125,000 jobs are needed per month to keep up with population growth.
The Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate unchanged at around 0 to 0.1%. The BOJ stated that Japan’s economic activity has “continued picking up” due to an increase in exports and domestic demand.
U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 401,000 last week. The 4-week moving average decreased by 4,000 to 414,000. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 395,000.
Eurozone retail sales fell 0.3% (month-over-month) in August. Food, drinks, and tobacco rose by 0.1%, while the non-food sector fell by 0.6%. Retail sales in Romania and Germany fell by 3.1% and 2.9%, respectively. Year-over-year, retail sales dropped 1.0%.
The Japan Tankan Survery rebounded in sentiment in the third quarter.
Eurozone unemployment remained unchanged at 10.0% in August. Eurostat estimated that 15.739 million were unemployed in August, 38,000 less than in July. Among the eurozone countries, Austria recorded the lowest rate at 3.7%, while Spain had the highest rate at 21.2%. Eurozone unemployment in August 2010 was 10.2%.
Eurozone CPI is expected to rise 3.0% (year-over-year) in September. This is a significant increase from last month’s 2.5% year-over-year change. The final figure, and month-to-month change, will be released on October 14th.
Japan industrial production rose 0.8% (month-over-month) in August. The index rose for the fifth consecutive month, but the increase was lower than the median forecast of 1.5%. The less-than-expected output in August could be due to a stronger yen and slowing global demands. Transport equipment, iron and steel, and electronic parts and devices contributed the most to the increase. Production is expected to decrease 2.5% in September and increase 3.8% in October according to the Survey of Production Forecast in Manufacturing.
Japan CPI rose 0.1% (month-over-month) in August. Core CPI, which excludes food prices, rose 0.2% year-over-year.
Japan unemployment fell to 4.3% in August. The number of unemployed persons fell by 14.0% year-over-year to 2.76 million.
U.S. initial jobless claims plummeted by 37,000 to 391,000 last week. Economists were expecting claims to drop to 420,000. The sharp drop, however, is probably due to ”seasonal adjustment issues.” The 4-week moving average decreased by 5,250 to 417,000. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 428,000. A weekly jobless claims number below the 400,000 mark is usually an indicator of job growth.
U.S. GDP was revised 0.3 percentage points higher to an annual rate of 1.3% (quarter-over-quarter) in the second quarter.
U.S. durable goods orders decreased by $0.2 billion or 0.1% (month-over-month) in August to $201.8 billion. A 23.5% jump in orders for commercial aircraft and parts was partially offset by a 8.5% decline in orders for motor vehicles and parts. Excluding transportation, new orders still fell by 0.1%. On a positive note, business investment excluding aircrafts rose by 1.1% after declining 0.2% in July. July durable goods orders were revised higher to an increase of 4.1%.
German CPI is expected to increase by 0.1% (month-over-month) in September. Year-over-year, CPI is expected to increase by 2.6%. The final estimate will be released on October 13th.
U.S. consumer confidence rose a meager 0.2 points (month-over-month) in September to 45.4. The Present Situation Index declined to 32.5 from 34.3, while the Expectations Index rose to 54.0 from 52.4. August CCI was revised higher to 45.2. A reading of 90 indicates a healthy economy.
The FOMC annouced that it will maintain the federal funds rate at 0 to .25%. The Federal Open Market Committee believes that economic growth remains slow due to weakness in the labor market. Household spending is increasing at only a “modest pace”, while the housing sector remains depressed. The FOMC believes that there are “significant downside risks” to the economic outlook. On a positive note, the FOMC believes that inflation has moderated as energy and commodity prices have declined from their peaks. Also, business investment in equipment and software continues to rise.
U.S. existing home sales rose 7.7% (month-over-month) in August to an annual rate of 5.03 million. Existing home sales bounced from an eight month low due in part to ”favorable affordability conditions” and delayed sales from the summer. The median price for all housing types was $168,300, a year-over-year fall of 5.1%. Existing home sales in July were revised higher to an annual rate of 4.67 million.
U.S. housing starts fell by 5.0% (month-over-month) in August to an annual rate of 571,000. Single-family homes, which account for approximately 70% of construction, dropped by 1.4%, while multifamily homes fell by 13.5%. Building permits, which measure future building activity, rose by 3.2%. July housing starts were revised lower to an annual rate of 601,000. Economists believe that a healthy housing market requires housing starts to grow at an annual rate of approximately 1.2 million.
The German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment dropped 5.7 points (month-over-month) in September to -43.3. This is the lowest reading since December 2008. Fears over the ongoing debt crisis in the Eurozone and the possibility of a global economic slowdown continues to weigh on the economic expectations of the survey takers.
U.S. CPI rose 0.4% (month-over-month) in August. Analysts were expecting an increase of 0.2%. Core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month, marking the second consecutive month of increase. Both food and energy prices increased in August, by 0.5% and 1.2%, respectively. Gasoline prices continued to increase but appears to be slowing down, gaining 1.9% in August after a 4.7% gain in July. Year-over-year, CPI rose 3.8%.
U.S. industrial production rose 0.2% (month-over-month) in August. Manufacturing output rose 0.5%, due in large part to a 2.6% jump in autos and related products. The output of mines rose 1.2%, while the output of utilities declined 3.0%. Year-over-year, industrial production rose 3.4%. Industrial production in July was unchanged in its revision.
Eurozone CPI rose 0.2% (month-over-month) in August. Prices for clothing and health increased 1.8% and 0.5%, respectively. Year-over-year, CPI rose 2.5% due to an 11.8% increase in energy, 5.6% rise in transport and a 4.9% jump in housing. The core inflation rate year-over-year was 1.2%.
U.S. retail sales rose 0.1% (month-over-month) in August to $389.5 billion. Analysts were expecting a 0.2% increase. Month-over-month, sales of sporting goods, hobby, book & music rose by 2.4%, while clothing sales, motor vehicle and parts sales fell by 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively. Year-over-year, retail sales rose 7.5%. July retail sales were revised lower to 0.3%.
U.S. producer price index remained unchanged (month-over-month) in August. An increase of 1.1% in finished consumer foods prices as well as a 0.1% rise in core PPI were offset by a 1% decrease in prices for finished energy goods. A 1.4% gain in tire prices, the largest price gain since April, accounted for more than 20% of the increase in the core PPI.
Eurozone industrial production rose 1.0% (month-over-month) in July. This was lower than the analyst estimate of 1.5%. Germany led the way with a 4.1% increase, along with a 1.6% rise in France. Month-over-month, production of capital goods rose 3% and durable consumer goods rose by 2.9%. Year-over-year, industrial production rose 4.2%. Last month’s figure was revised lower by 10 basis points to -0.8%.
Japan tertiary index fell 0.1％ (month-over-month) in July to 98.4. The sharp drop from last month’s 1.9% gain was mainly due to a 2.6% drop in Scientific Research, Professional and Technical Services as well as a 0.9% drop in the Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply and Water industry. Compound Services and the Finance and Insurance industry, however, managed to post gains of 4.1% and 2.1%, respectively.
German CPI remained unchanged (month-over-month) in August. Year-over-year, CPI rose by 2.4%. The year-over-year increase was due in part to a 9.9% jump in energy prices. Excluding energy prices, CPI rose by 1.4%. Food prices rose 2.5% as well. This is the seventh consecutive month that the CPI was above 2%.
China industrial production rose 13.5% (year-over-year) in August. This is slightly less than the 14% yoy growth in July, as well as the 13.7% average analyst estimate. Heavy industry rose by 13.5%, while the light industry rose by 13.4%. Transportation equipment manufacturing rose by 12.4% as well.
China PPI rose 7.3% (year-over-year) in August. The mining industry has been rapidly expanding in recent months, growing by 18.8% this month. Food prices rose 4.6%, clothing and general commodities price rose 4.6% and 4.7%, respectively, while durable consumer good prices fell 0.3%.
The Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate unchanged at around 0 to 0.1%. The BOJ stated that Japan’s economic activity has been picking up steadily due to an increase in exports and domestic demand. Supply-side constraints caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake “have mostly been resolved.”
Eurozone GDP was unrevised at 0.2% (quarter-over-quarter) in the second quarter.
Eurozone retail sales rose 0.2% (month-over-month) in July. Food, drinks, and tobacco fell by 0.4%, while the non-food sector rose by 0.5%. The increase was due in part to a 2.5% rise in sales in Portgual. Sales in June were revised lower to a gain of 0.7%. Year-over-year, retail sales dropped 0.2%.
US unemployment remained unchanged at 9.1% in August. Non-farm payrolls remained unchanged at 131.1 million as well. This came as a shock as analysts were expecting a payroll increase of at least 75,000. The halt in job growth has caused fears over another possible recession in the near future. This month’s reading was the weakest since September of last year, according to the US Labour Department.
German GDP rose by only 0.1% (quarter-over-quarter) in the second quarter.
Eurozone unemployment remained unchanged at 10.0% in July. Eurostat estimated that 15.757 million were unemployed in July, 61,000 more than in June. Among the eurozone countries, Austria recorded the lowest rate at 3.7%, while Spain had the highest rate at 21.2%. Eurozone unemployment in July 2010 was 10.2%.
Eurozone CPI is expected to rise 2.5% (year-over-year) in August. This is equal to last month’s year-over-year change. The final figure, and month-to-month change, will be released on September 15th.
Japan industrial production rose 0.6% (month-over-month) in July. The index rose for the fourth consecutive month, but the increase was lower than the median forecast of 1.5%. The less-than-expected output in July could be due to a stronger yen and slowing global demands. Transport equipment, information and communication electronics equipment, and general machinery contributed the most to the increase. Production is expected to be 2.8% in August and -2.4% in September according to the Survey of Production Forecast in Manufacturing.
U.S. consumer confidence plummeted 14.7 points (month-over-month) in August to 44.5. The Present Situation Index declined to 33.3 from 35.7, while the Expectations Index sunk to 51.9 from 74.9. July CCI was revised lower to 59.2. A reading of 90 indicates a healthy economy.
Japan retail sales rose 0.7% (year-over-year) in July to 11,798 billion yen.
Japan unemployment rose to 4.7% in July. The number of unemployed persons fell by 7.3% year-over-year to 2.92 million.
German CPI is expected to decrease by 0.1% (month-over-month) in August. Year-over-year, CPI is expected to increase by 2.3%. The final estimate will be released on September 9th.
U.S. GDP was revised 0.3 percentage points lower to an annual rate of 1.0% (quarter-over-quarter) in the second quarter.
Japan CPI was unchanged (month-over-month) in July. Core CPI, which excludes food prices, rose 0.1% year-over-year.
U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 5,000 to 417,000 last week. The average analyst estimate was a reading of 405,000. The 4-week moving average increased by 4,000 to 407,500. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 412,000. Analysts believe the data was skewed by striking Verizon workers who reported themselves as unemployed. Jobless claims remain unable to break below the significant level of 400,000.
U.S. durable goods orders increased by $7.7 billion or 4.0% (month-over-month) in July to $201.5 billion. The average analyst estimate was a 2.0% rise. The better-than-expected data was primarily due to a 11.5% increase in autos and auto parts and a 43.4% spike in commercial aircraft. Excluding transportation, new orders rose by 0.7%. Business investment, however, fell by 1.5%, the largest drop in six months. June durable goods orders were revised higher to a decrease of 1.3%.
The German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment plummeted 22.5 points (month-over-month) in August to -37.6. The average analyst estimate was a reading of -26.0. The decline was due to increased fear of a double-dip recession in the U.S. after the downgrade of the country’s debt and weaker than expected German GDP growth in the second quarter.
U.S. existing-home sales fell 3.5% (month-over-month) in July to an annual rate of 4.67 million. Existing home sales hit an eight month low and were well below the average analyst estimate of 4.92 million. Lawrence Yun, the NAR chief economist, stated that although home prices are very favorable, “buyers are being held back because banks are only offering financing to the most highly qualified borrowers.” Year-over-year, home sales rose 21.0% due to the expiration of the home buyer tax credit last year. The median price for all housing types was $174,500, a year-over-year fall of 4.4%. Existing home sales in June were revised higher to an annual rate of 4.84 million.
U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 9,000 to 408,000 last week. The average analyst estimate was a reading of 400,000. The 4-week moving average decreased by 3,500 to 402,500. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 399,000. With jobless claims unable to remain below the 400k mark, the report does little to alleviate any major job market concerns. In the week ended August 6th, California suffered the largest increase, a rise of 7,848 claims, due to layoffs in the service industry.
U.S. consumer price index rose 0.5% (month-over-month) in July. The average analyst estimate was an increase of only 0.2%. The gain was due in part to a 4.7% jump in the gasoline index and a 0.4% rise in the food index. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, rose 0.2%. The shelter and apparel indexes rose 0.3% and 1.2%, respectively. Year-over-year, CPI rose 3.6%.
U.S. producer price index rose 0.2% (month-over-month) in July. Prices for consumer foods advanced 0.6%, while the price for energy fell 0.6%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.4%, a six-month high. A quarter of the core PPI increase was due to a 2.8% jump in the price for tobacco products. The report does little to ease U.S. inflationary concerns.
Eurozone CPI declined 0.6%. (month-over-month) in July. Prices for garments and footwear declined 13.3% and 15.2%, respectively. Year-over-year, CPI rose 2.5% due to an 11.8% increase in energy, 5.5% rise in transport and a 5.0% jump in housing. Year-over-year, this is the lowest inflation has been since February. The core inflation rate year-over-year was 1.2%.
U.S. industrial production rose 0.9% (month-over-month) in July. Industrial production rose the most in seven months and beat the average analyst estimate of a gain of 0.5%. Manufacturing output rose 0.6%, due in part to a 5.2% jump in motor vehicles and parts. The output of mines and utilities rose 1.1% and 2.8%, respectively. Year-over-year, industrial production rose 3.7%. Industrial production in June was revised higher to a gain of 0.4%.
U.S. housing starts fell by 1.5% (month-over-month) in July to an annual rate of 604,000. Single-family homes, which account for approximately 70% of construction, dropped by 4.9%, while apartment buildings rose by 6.3%. Building permits, which measure future building activity, fell by 3.2%. June housing starts were revised lower to an annual rate of 613,000. It appears that housing starts are still struggling to gain momentum, especially with a decline in building permits. Economists believe that a healthy housing market requires housing starts to grow at an annual rate of approximately 1.2 million.
Japan GDP fell 0.3% (quarter-over-quarter) in the second quarter. The average analyst estimate was a decline of 0.7%. Exports dropped 4.9% due to supply-chain disruptions from the March 11th earthquake and a stronger yen. The better-than-expected report reaffirms that Japan’s economy is smoothly recovering.
U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% (month-over-month) in July to $390.4 billion. Analysts were expecting an increase of 0.5%. The rise was due in part to sales at gasoline stations and motor vehicle & parts dealers rising 1.6% and 0.4%, respectively. Excluding auto sales, retail sales still rose 0.5%. The report should provide some relief amid worries over a double-dip recession. June retail sales were revised higher to a gain of 0.3%.
Eurozone industrial production dropped 0.7% (month-over-month) in June. Analysts were expecting an increase of 0.1%. The unexpected fall was due to a 2.5% drop in durable consumer goods. Capital goods and intermediate goods also suffered, declining 1.5% and 0.6%, respectively. Portugal declined 3.5%, while Germany fell 0.8%. Year-over-year, industrial production rose by 2.9%. May eurozone industrial production was revised higher to a gain of 0.2%.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 395,000 last week. Although the number was better than the average analyst estimate of 400,000, it’s highly unlikely to alleviate any major job market concerns. The reading, however, is the lowest since the week ended April 2nd and should provide some relief amid fears of a double-dip recession. A weekly jobless claims number below 400,000 is usually associated with job growth. The 4-week moving average decreased by 3,250 to 405,000. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 402,000. In the week ended July 30th, initial claims in Michigan fell by 3,025 due to fewer layoffs in the automobile industry.
German CPI rose 0.4% (month-over-month) in July. The month-over-month jump was due in part to air travel rising 14.7%, accommodation services increasing 11.2%, and package holidays jumping 10.5%. Support also came from a 0.5% increase in motor fuel prices. Food prices, however, took a 0.3% hit. Year-over-year, CPI in July rose 2.4%. Food prices increased by 2.1%, while non-alcohol beverages rose by 7.2% due to a 20.4% increase in the price of coffee. This is the sixth consecutive month that the rate was above 2%. Not including energy prices, year-over-year CPI was 1.5%.
China trade balance in July was a surplus of $31.48 billion. Analysts were expecting a surplus of $27.4 billion. Exports increased 20.4% year-over-year to $175.1 billion, while imports rose 22.9% to $143.6 billion. This is China’s largest surplus since January 2009. Due to the fragile state of the global economy, it is unlikely that China will be able to maintain its strong export growth in the coming months.
Japan Tertiary Industry Activity rose 1.9% (month-over-month) in June to 98.5. Analysts were expecting a rise of 1.0%. Once again, the “Living-Related and Personal Services and Amusement Services” industry led the way with a 4.2% gain. The “Transport and Postal Activities” industry also posted a strong gain of 3.1%.
The FOMC announced that it will maintain the federal funds rate at 0 to .25%, no QE3. The Federal Open Market Committee believes the economic recovery is moving “considerably slower” than anticipated. The FOMC cited weak household spending and investment in nonresidential structures, and a depressed housing sector. Over the coming quarters, the Committee believes that the unemployment rate will decline “only gradually.” The Committee is likely to maintain a low federal funds rate through at least mid-2013.
China retail sales rose by 17.2% (year-over-year) in July to 1.4408 trillion yuan. This is .5 percentage points lower than the year-over-year change in June and below the average analyst estimate of a 17.6% rise. Food and beverage sales increased by 17.1%, while retail rose by 17.1%. Within retail, petroleum products jumped 40.6% to 123.7 billion yuan, and car sales rose 11.9% to 163.8 billion yuan.
China industrial production rose by 14.0% (year-over-year) in July. This is 1.1 percentage points lower than the year-over-year change in June and below the average analyst estimate of a 14.9% rise. The heavy industry rose by 14.5%, while the light industry increased by 12.8%. Power generation rose only 13.2%, compared to 16.2% in June. Nonferrous metals also took a hit, declining 4.4 percentage points from June to a gain of 9.8%.
China CPI rose 6.5% (year-over-year) in July. China’s inflation climbed to a 37-month high. Economists were expecting a reading of 6.3%. Food prices jumped 14.8%, while non-food prices rose 2.9%. The price of pork skyrocketed by 56.7%. Month-over-month, CPI rose 0.5%. China policy makers are now in a difficult position of having to combat high inflation without endangering the already fragile global economy.
China PPI rose 7.5% (year-over-year) in July. Prices in mining jumped 18.1%, while prices in food rose 8.4%. Month-over-month, prices were unchanged.
U.S. unemployment fell to 9.1% in July. Non-farm payrolls increased by a better-than-expected 117,000. Analysts were expecting a reading of 9.2%, and a payroll increase of 75,000. The private sector added 154,000 jobs, due in part to manufacturing payrolls rising by 24,000. Meanwhile, the government reduced its workforce for the ninth month in a row, cutting 37,000 jobs. Approximately 23,000 of those were due to the partial shutdown of the Minnesota state government. Although a rate of 9.1% is highly unlikely to alleviate any major concerns regarding the job market, the reading comes as a relief after the worst day on Wall Street in almost three years. Approximately 125,000 jobs are needed per month to keep up with population growth.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 400,000 last week. Although analysts were expecting claims to rise by 7,000, the reading is unlikely to alleviate any fears regarding the job market. The 4-week moving average decreased by 6,750 to 407,750. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 401,000. In the week ended July 23rd, initial claims in California fell by 23,689 due to fewer layoffs in the service industry.
The European Central Bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. The deposit and marginal lending rates were also unchanged at .75% and 2.25%, respectively. In the press conference, Jean-Claude Trichet stated that although uncertainty about the future is “particularly high”, he believes the economy will continue to moderately expand. He also revealed that due to the ongoing crisis, the ECB will conduct a six-month loan operation to provide banks with more liquidity. In regards to the ECB’s bond-buying program, Trichet stated, “I wouldn’t be surprised that before the end of this teleconference you would see something on the market.” An interest-rate hike in September appears unlikely.
The Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate unchanged at around 0 to 0.1%. The BOJ stated that supply-side constraints caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake continue to ease. Japan’s economy is expected to return to a “moderate recovery path” with expected increases in production and exports as well as a “rise in demand for restoring capital stock.” The bank has also decided to increase the total size of the Asset Purchase Program from about 40 trillion yen to approximately 50 trillion yen in order to enhance monetary easing.
Eurozone retail sales rose 0.9% (month-over-month) in June. Food, drinks, and tobacco rose by 0.9%, while the non-food sector rose by 1.0%. The larger-than-expected rise was due in part to a 6.3% spike in sales in Germany. Sales in May were revised lower to a loss of 1.3%. Year-over-year, retail sales dropped 0.4%.
Eurozone unemployment remained unchanged at 9.9% in June. Eurostat estimated that 15.640 million were unemployed in June, 18,000 more than in May. Among the eurozone countries, Austria recorded the lowest rate at 4.0%, while Spain had the highest rate at 21.0%. Eurozone unemployment in June 2010 was 10.2%.
U.S. GDP rose at an annual rate of 1.3% (quarter-over-quarter) in the second quarter. The rise was primarily due to a fall in imports and an increase in federal government spending and nonresidential fixed investment. Economists surveyed by the Dow Jones Newswires were expecting a 1.8% rise. The underwhelming result was due to consumer spending only rising at an annual rate of 0.1% after gaining 2.1% in the first quarter. More surprising, though, was that first quarter growth was revised significantly lower to an annual rate of 0.4% from 1.9%.
Eurozone CPI is expected to rise 2.5% (year-over-year) in July. This is lower than last month’s 2.7% year-over-year change. The final figure, and month-to-month change, will be released on August 17th.
Japan unemployment rose to 4.6% in June. The number of unemployed persons fell by 10.9% year-over-year to 2.93 million.
U.S. durable goods orders decreased $4.0 billion or 2.1% (month-over-month) in June to $192.0 billion. The average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg News survey was a rise of 0.3%. The worse-than-expected data was due to a 8.5% drop in transportation equipment as commercial aircraft orders declined by 28.9%. Excluding transportation, new orders inched up by 0.1%. May durable goods orders were revised lower to an increase of 1.9%.
U.S. consumer confidence rose 1.9 points (month-over-month) in July to 59.5. The Present Situation Index declined to 35.7 from 36.6, while the Expectations Index rose to 75.4 from 71.6. Consumers are still concerned over the struggling labor market. June CCI was revised lower to 57.6. A reading of 90 indicates a healthy economy.
U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 418,000 last week. The 4-week moving average decreased by 2,750 to 421,250. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 408,000. In the week ended July 9th, New York suffered the largest increase, a rise of 20,559 claims, due to layoffs in the “education related services, transportation, and services industries.” Meanwhile, initial claims in California fell by 15,751 due to fewer layoffs in the service industry. Weekly jobless claims have now been over the 400,000 mark for the past 15 weeks.
The Japan trade balance in June was a surplus of 70,737 billion yen. The country’s first trade surplus in three months came as a surprise as analysts were expecting a deficit of 149 billion yen. It appears that Japan’s recovery from the March 11th earthquake is moving along just fine. Exports increased 5.4% from May and were only down 1.6% from June 2010. Analysts were expecting a year-over-year fall of 4.1%. Motor vehicle shipments declined by 12.5%, an improvement from the 39.8% drop seen in May. Imports rose year-over-year by a less-than-expected 9.8%. The rise was mainly attributed to a 25.5% rise in mineral fuels.
U.S. existing-home sales fell 0.8% (month-over-month) in June to an annual rate of 4.77 million. This is a seven month low. The decline was due to an unusual increase in contract cancellations. NAR members reported that 16% of sales contracts were canceled in June, up 4% from May. Lawrence Yun, the NAR chief economist, believes that the “federal budget debacle may be causing hesitation among some consumers or lenders.” Year-over-year, home sales were down 8.8%. The median price for all housing types was $184,500, a year-over-year rise of 0.8%.
U.S. housing starts rose by a more-than-expected 14.6% (month-over-month) in June to an annual rate of 629,000. This is a five month high. The rise was led by a 31.8% increase in structures with 5 or more units. Construction of single-family homes rose by 9.4%. Region wise, the northeast led the way with a 35.1% increase. Building permits, which measure future building activity, rose an unexpected 2.5%. May housing starts were revised lower to an annual rate of 549,000.
The German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment dropped 6.1 points (month-over-month) in July to -15.1. The reading measures the expected economic development in Germany in the next six months. The decline is due to the continuing debt problems of “some countries in the eurozone” and also the increasing concern over the United States and its own debt. The index regarding the current economic situation, however, rose 3.0 points to a reading of 90.6.
U.S. consumer price index fell 0.2% (month-over-month) in June. The decline was due to a 6.8% drop in the gasoline index. However, core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, rose a disturbing 0.3%. The 0.3% rise was due to apparel and used car & truck prices rising 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively. New vehicle prices also contributed with a 0.6% increase. With core CPI higher than expected, it is less likely that QE3 will be implemented in the near future. Year-over-year, CPI rose 3.6%.
U.S. industrial production rose 0.2% (month-over-month) in June. Manufacturing output was unchanged. The output of mines and utilities rose 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively. Year-over-year, industrial production rose 3.4%.
U.S. retail sales increased 0.1% (month-over-month) in June to $387.8 billion. The rise was primarily due to a 0.8% increase in motor vehicle & parts sales. Building material & garden equipment and clothing rose 1.3% and 0.7%, respectively. Sales at gasoline stations took a 1.3% hit. Excluding auto sales, retail sales were unchanged. This level is 8.1 percent above the level in June 2010. May sales figures were revised higher to a 0.1% loss.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 22,000 to 405,000 last week. The 4-week moving average decreased by 3,750 to 423,250. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 427,000. In the week ended July 2nd, New York suffered the largest increase, a rise of 6,220 claims, due to layoffs in the “education service, transportation, and manufacturing industries.” Meanwhile, initial claims in Florida fell by 5,889 due to fewer layoffs in the “construction, manufacturing, trade, and retail industries.”
U.S. producer price index declined 0.4% (month-over-month) in June. The price index for crude materials fell 0.6% due to a 4.1% drop in crude energy materials.
Eurozone CPI remained unchanged (month-over-month) in June. Prices for packaged holidays rose 4.8%, while energy prices fell 0.5%. Year-over-year, CPI rose 2.7% due to a 10.9% increase in energy, 5.3% rise in transport and a 4.8% jump in housing. The core inflation rate year-over-year was 1.6%.
Eurozone industrial production rose 0.1% (month-over-month) in May. This was far less than the expected rise of 0.5%. Production of energy and capital goods increased by 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively. Durable and non-durable consumer goods, however, fell by 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. Intermediate goods fell by 0.1% as well. Economists are expecting similar results in the coming months as the European economy appears to be going through a “soft patch”.
China industrial production rose by 15.1% (year-over-year) in June. Heavy industry grew by 15.6%, while the light industry recorded a growth of 13.9%. Despite strong industrial growth, China is aiming to cut back its metal-output capacity in efforts to control supply levels. Month-over-month, industrial production in June rose 1.48%.
China GDP rose 9.5% (year-over-year) in the second quarter. This is the lowest rate since 3Q 2009, but still higher than the expected 9.4%. The higher than expected growth suggests a tighter policy going into the third quarter in order to combat rising inflation. The secondary industry once again led the way with a 11% growth, while the tertiary and primary industries grew by 9.2% and 3.2%, respectively. On a quarterly basis, the second quarter rose by 2.2%.
German CPI rose 0.1% (month-over-month) in June. Package holidays and accommodation services increased 7.2% and 3.2%, respectively. Energy prices fell 0.4% due to a 1.7% drop in motor fuels. Year-over-year, CPI in June rose 2.3%. This is the fifth consecutive month that the rate was above 2%.
The Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate unchanged at around 0 to 0.1%. The BOJ stated that supply-side constraints caused by the great earthquake are subsiding. This relief has resulted in an increase in exports. Domestic private demand has also seen improvement and financial conditions have continued to ease. However, uncertainty remains about the longer-term outlook of electricity supply constraints. The bank also stated they will continue powerful monetary easing in order to support economic growth.
Japan Tertiary Industry Activity rose 0.9% (month-over-month) in May to 96.6. The Living-related and Personal Services and Amusement Services industry led the way with a 6.7% increase. The Scientific Research, Professional and Technical Services industry suffered a 2.5% decline. The Finance and insurance industry remained unchanged from last month.
China trade balance in June was a surplus of $22.3 billion. This is China’s highest surplus in seven months. Imports grew by only 19.3% year-over-year, the slowest pace in 20 months and a sharp drop from the 28.4% increase seen in May. Exports grew by 17.9% to a record high of $162 billion.
China CPI rose 6.4% (year-over-year) in June. This is China’s highest inflation rate since June 2008. Food prices increased by 14.4% while non-food prices rose 3.0%. Month-over-month, CPI in June rose 0.3%.
China producer price index rose 7.1% (year-over-year) in June. Month-over-month, PPI in June was unchanged.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 418,000 last week. The 4-week moving average decreased by 3000 to 424,750. The previous jobless claims number was revised higher to 432,000. In the week ended June 25th, New Jersey suffered the largest increase, a rise of 6,827 claims, due to layoffs in the “transportation, warehousing industries and education services.” Meanwhile, initial claims in Pennsylvania fell by 4,974 due to fewer layoffs in the “transportation, entertainment, and service industries.”
The European Central Bank will lift its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50% starting July 13th. The deposit and marginal lending rates will also increase by the same amount to .75% and 2.25%, respectively. Inflation continues to the be the largest concern for the ECB as its goal is to keep it below the 2% level. The most recent inflation reading showed an expected 2.7% year-over-year increase in June. There are concerns, however, that this rate hike will hamper the recovery efforts of debt-ridden nations such as Greece and Portugal.
The Peoples Bank of China will raise its interest rates by 25 basis points. The lending rate will be 6.56%, and the deposit rate will be 3.5%, effective tomorrow. This is the third time this year that the PBOC has raised interest rates in efforts to meet its 4% target inflation rate. However, China may fail to do so as inflation for the first five months of the year was 5.2%.
Eurozone retail sales fell 1.1% (month-over-month) in May. Food, drinks, and tobacco fell by 0.6% while the non-food sector declined by 0.9%. The largest decline since April 2010 was partially attributed to a 2.8% drop in retail sales in Germany. Sales in April were revised lower to a gain of 0.7%. Year-over-year, retail sales dropped 1.9%.
Eurozone unemployment remained unchanged at 9.9% in May. Eurostat estimated that 15.510 million were unemployed in May, 16,000 more than in April. Among the eurozone countries, the Netherlands recorded the lowest rate at 4.2% while Spain had the highest rate at 20.9%. Eurozone unemployment in May 2010 was 10.2%.
Japan CPI rose 0.1% (month-over-month) in May. Core CPI, which excludes food prices, rose 0.6% year-over-year for the second month in a row, partly due to higher commodity prices. Core-core inflation index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.1% year-over-year, marking the first annual increase since October 2008.
The Japan Tankan Survery showed a sharp decline in sentiment in the second quarter. A big drop in overall sentiment was expected since more than 70% of last quarter’s survey was collected before the March earthquake. However, the index for large manufacturers’ confidence is projected to be plus 2 by the end of the third quarter as Japan’s supply chain is expected to fully recover.
Japan unemployment fell to 4.5% in May. The number of unemployed persons fell by 11.5% year-over-year. However, the results exclude three prefectures (Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima) affected by the Earthquake.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 428,000 last week. The 4-week moving average increased by 500 to 426,750. The previous jobless claims number was unrevised. In the week ended June 18th, California suffered the largest increase, a rise of 4,939 initial claims, due to layoffs in the service industry.
Eurozone CPI is expected to rise 2.7% (year-over-year) in June. This is equal to last month’s 2.7% year-over-year change. The final figure, and month-to-month change, will be released on July 14th.
Japan industrial production rose 5.7% (month-over-month) in May. The gain was primarily due to an increase in passenger car and truck production, while the general machinery and chemical sectors also assisted in the rise. The result was slightly higher than the forecast of 5.5% from the Dow Jones Newswires. According to forecasts contained in the government data, production is expected to rise by 5.3% in June and by 0.5% in July.
German CPI is expected to remain unchanged (month-over-month) in June. Year-over-year, CPI is expected to increase by 2.3%. The final estimate will be released on July 12th.
U.S. consumer confidence fell 3.2 points (month-over-month) in June to 58.5. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting a reading of 60.5. Consumer confidence is at its lowest level since November 2010. The Present Situation Index declined to 37.6 from 39.3 while the Expectations Index fell to 72.4 from 76.7. The decline was primarily due to concerns over the labor market and income prospects. May CCI was revised higher to 61.7. A reading of 90 indicates a healthy economy.
Japan retail sales declined 1.3% (year-over-year) in May to 10,917 billion yen. The decline was primarily due to a 24.4% drop in automobile sales. The reading, however, was still better-than-expected due to machinery and equipment sales rising 3.8% compared to a 9.6% drop in April. Month-over-month, Japan retail sales increased 2.4%.
U.S. durable goods orders rose $3.6 billion or 1.9% (month-over-month) in May to $195.6 billion. The increase was primarily due to transportation equipment orders rising 5.6% after experiencing a 9.4% drop in April. The rise in transportation was carried by a 36% jump in commercial aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.6%. Capital goods orders also recovered strongly, rising 5.6% after a 5.4% decline in April. April durable goods orders were revised higher to a loss of 2.7%.
U.S. GDP was revised 0.1 percentage points higher to an annual rate of 1.9% (quarter-over-quarter) in the first quarter. The higher revised rate was primarily due to a downward revision to imports and an upward revision to inventory investment. These gains, however, were offset by downward revisions to exports and government spending.
U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 9,000 to 429,000 last week. The 4-week moving average is unchanged at 426,250. Last week’s jobless claims number was revised higher to 420,000. A weekly jobless claims number below the 400,000 mark is usually an indicator of job growth.
The FOMC announced that it will maintain the federal funds rate at 0 to .25%. The Federal Open Market Committee believes the economic recovery is continuing at a moderate but slower-than-expected pace since it last met in April. The Committee believes the slower pace is likely to be temporary with the expected improvements in food and energy prices and the recovery in Japan. The FOMC also acknowledged that inflation has picked up and it will be monitored carefully. The Committee, though, still believes that inflation in the long-term remains stable. The federal funds rate will remain at current levels for an “extended period” and the purchases of $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities will be complete by the end of this month.
U.S. existing-home sales fell 3.8% (month-over-month) in May to an annual rate of 4.81 million. This is the lowest level in sixth months and 15.3% below the rate in May 2010. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun attributed the decline to “spiking gasoline prices and widespread severe weather.” He believes that sales in the second half of the year will be stronger. First time buyers were on the sideline, contributing to only 35% of sales in May. They are historically responsible for 50% of sales in healthy markets. The median price for all housing types was $166,500, a drop of 4.6% year-over-year.
The German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment plunged 12.1 points (month-over-month) in June to -9.0. The reading, which measures the expected economic development in Germany in the next six months, hasn’t been this low since January 2009. The decline is primarily due to the continuing woes in Greece and the recent string of disappointing economic data from the United States.
The Japan trade balance in May was a deficit of 853,715 billion yen. Year-over-year, exports fell by 10.3% while imports rose by 12.3%. Shipments of motor vehicles and semiconductors fell by 38.9% and 18.5%, respectively. The large jump in imports was because of “higher energy prices and supply shortages” due to the earthquake. Experts expect Japan to remain in a trade deficit in the coming months as the country continues its recovery.
Eurozone CPI remained unchanged (month-over-month) in May. Food prices rose 0.5% while energy prices fell 0.6%. Year-over-year, CPI rose 2.7% due to an 11.1% increase in energy, 5.3% rise in transport and a 4.7% jump in housing. With the year-over-year inflation rate still well above the 2% mark, an interest rate hike remains likely when the ECB meets in July. The core inflation rate year-over-year was 1.5%.
U.S. housing starts increased 3.5% (month-over-month) in May to an annual rate of 560,000. The median forecast surveyed by Bloomberg was a rise to an annual rate of 545,000. Housing starts in the West and South led the way, increasing 18.1% and 1.5%, respectively. Overall, single-family starts rose 3.7%. Single-family starts in the Northeast, however, plunged 19.1%. Year-over-year, May starts fell 3.4%. April housing starts were revised higher to a rate of 541,000.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 16,000 to 414,000 last week. The 4-week moving average is unchanged at 424,750. Last week’s jobless claims number was revised higher to 430,000.
U.S. CPI rose 0.2% (month-over-month) in May. Troubling news, though, is that core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, rose 0.3%, its largest increase in nearly three years. Apparel and auto prices led the way, increasing 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively. Meanwhile, the energy index fell 1.0%, its first decline in 11 months.
U.S. industrial production rose 0.1% (month-over-month) in May. Although the overall reading was below expectations, manufacturing production managed to rebound from April, gaining 0.4%. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output rose 0.6%. Output of mines increased 0.5% while output of utilities declined 2.8%.
The Peoples Bank of China will raise the reserve requirement for commercial banks by 50 basis points to 21.5% starting on June 20th. The 21.5% reserve requirement will be a record high. Approximately 380 billion yuan will be taken off the market and become required reserves in order to combat China’s high inflation.
U.S. retail sales declined 0.2% (month-over-month) in May to $387.1 billion. This is the first drop in retail sales in 11 months. Analysts, however, were expecting a larger decline of 0.4%. The fall was primarily due to auto sales falling 2.9% due to supply constraints from Japan. Excluding auto sales, retail sales climbed 0.3%. This level is 7.7 percent above the level in May 2010. April sales figures were revised lower to a 0.3% gain.
U.S. producer price index rose 0.2% (month-over-month) in May. This is the slowest gain in 10 months. A 2.7% increase in gas prices accounted for approximately 75% of May’s rise. Meanwhile, food prices dropped 1.4%.
China CPI rose 5.5% (year-over-year) in May. This is China’s highest inflation rate in nearly three years. Food prices increased by 11.7% while non-food prices rose 2.9%. Month-over-month, CPI in May rose 0.1%. This suggests that a rate hike is likely in the coming months.
China retail sales rose 16.9% (year-over-year) in May to 1,469.7 billion yuan. Year-over-year growth has slowed in the last three months. Merril Lynch attributes this to an ease in auto sales, which have fallen nearly 4% since May 2010 due to an end in tax incentives. Month-over-month, retail sales in April rose 1.28%.
China producer price index rose 6.8% (year-over-year) in May. Means of production jumped 7.5% while means of livelihood rose 4.6%. Month-over-month, PPI in May rose 0.5%.
The Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate unchanged at around 0 to 0.1%. The BOJ stated that the economy continues to face obstacles due to the earthquake, but it is showing signs of improvement. The hard hit areas of production and domestic private demand have showed signs of recovery. The economy is expected to return to a moderate recovery path by the second half of 2011. The BOJ also announced that it will lend 500 billion yen to banks to support growth industries.
China trade balance in May was a surplus of $13.1 billion. This month’s surplus was up 15% from April’s $11.4 billion, but down 33% from May of last year. The narrowing of the trade surplus year-over-year was due to a higher growth in imports than exports. China’s year-over-year import growth in May was 28.4%, up from 21.8% in April, and it’s year-over-year export growth was 19.4%, down from 29.9% in April.
German CPI remained unchanged (month-over-month) in May. The final data was unchanged. Energy prices fell 0.7% while tobacco and food prices rose 1.3% and 0.6%, respectively. Year-over-year, CPI in May rose 2.3%. This is the fourth consecutive month that the rate was above 2%.
Japan Tertiary Industry Activity rose 2.6% (month-over-month) in April to 95.8. The index managed to rebound from last month’s 5.9% plummet. The information and communications industry led the way, increasing 9.3%. On the other hand, the finance and insurance industry took a 2.4% hit.
Eurozone GDP was unrevised at 0.8% (quarter-over-quarter) in the first quarter. Business investment led the way, rising 2.1% and contributing to half of the 0.8% increase. Meanwhile, household and government consumption both contributed 0.2 percentage points while net exports added 0.1 percentage points.
Japan GDP fell 0.9% (quarter-over-quarter) in the first quarter. The devastating earthquake, which hit on March 11th, had a large impact on Japan’s worst GDP reading in two years. Japan is now technically in a recession with this being the second consecutive quarter in the red. Business investment and consumer spending dropped 1.3% and 0.6%, respectively. On an annualized basis, Japan GDP declined 3.5%.
Eurozone retail sales rose 0.9% (month-over-month) in April. April’s surprising gain was the sharpest seen in 13 months. The rise was attributed to “fine weather” and a late Easter holiday. Retail sales in Germany and France rose 0.6% and 1.4%, respectively.
U.S. unemploymentrose to 9.1% in May. Non-farm payrolls increased by a disappointing 54,000 after averaging a gain of 220,000 in the prior three months. Specifically, private payrolls rose by 83,000 while government payrolls dropped by 29,000. Local governments slashed 28,000 jobs due to budget cuts. Manufacturers lost 5,000 jobs, the sectors first loss in seven months.
Eurozone unemployment remained unchanged at 9.9% in April. Eurostat estimated that 15.529 million were unemployed in April, 115,000 less than in March. Among the eurozone countries, the Netherlands recorded the lowest rate at 4.2% while Spain had the highest rate at 20.7%.
U.S. consumer confidence fell 5.2 points (month-over-month) in May to 60.8. Economists were expecting a reading of 67. Consumer confidence is at its lowest level in six-months. The Present Situation Index declined to 39.3 from 40.2. The Expectations Index fell to 75.2 from 83.2. April CCI was revised higher to 66. A reading of 90 indicates a healthy economy.
Eurozone CPI is expected to increase 2.7% (year-over-year) in May. This is slightly below last month’s 2.8% year-over-year change. The final figure, and month-to-month change, will be released on June 16th.
Japan unemployment rose to 4.7% in April. The results exclude three prefectures (Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima) due to the earthquake. Survey operations in these three regions have been suspended since March 2011. The increase in unemployment was the first in 6 months.
Japan industrial production rose 1.0% (month-over-month) in April. After plummeting 15.5% in March, industrial production was able to slightly recover despite the ongoing impact of the earthquake on Japan’s supply chains. Economists, however, were expecting a rise of 2.8%. On an optimistic note, manufacturers polled by the Ministry of Economy expect production to rise 8% in May and 7.7% in June.
German CPI is expected to remain unchanged (month-over-month) in May. Year-over-year, CPI is expected to increase by 2.3%. The final estimate will be released on June 10th.
U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 424,000 last week. The 4-week moving average is now at 438,500, a 1,750 decrease. Last week’s jobless claims number was revised higher to 414,000.
Japan CPI rose 0.3% (month-over-month) in April. Core CPI, which excludes only food prices, rose 0.6% year-over-year. Surprisingly, this marks the first year-over-year increase in over two years. A significant reason for the year-over-year increase, however, was due to the abolition of high school tuition fees which resulted in a 0.5 percentage point reduction from the overall inflation rate in April 2010. Fuel costs, however, also contributed to this months inflation, rising 3.3% year-over-year.
U.S. durable goods orders dropped $7.1 billion or 3.6% (month-over-month) in April to $189.9 billion. The largest decline in six months was primarily due to a fall in aircraft demand and supply chain disruptions from the earthquake in Japan. Transportation equipment suffered the largest decline, falling $4.9 billion or 9.5% to $46.7 billion. March durable goods orders were revised higher to a gain of 4.4%.
German GDP rose a strong 1.5% (quarter-over-quarter) in the 1st quarter. Total investment rebounded 5.0% after a 0.1% decline in the fourth quarter. This contributed 0.9 percentage points to the growth rate. Net exports contributed 0.5 percentage points to GDP as exports rose 2.3% while imports rose 1.5%. Year-over-year, GDP grew 4.9%.
The Japan trade balance in April was a deficit of 464,836 billion yen. Exports suffered its largest loss in 18 months, plunging 12.4% year-over-year while imports rose 8.9%. Due to the earthquake, this is the first trade deficit in the month of April in 31 years. Shipments of motor vehicles and microchips plummeted 67% and 19%, respectively. Economists expect this month or May to be the bottom for Japan’s exports.
U.S. existing-home sales fell 0.8% (month-over-month) in April to an annual rate of 5.05 million. This level is 12.9% below the rate in April 2010. Sales, however, were artificially high in April and May of last year due to a home buyer tax credit. The current market, however, is still underperforming due to “unnecessarily tight credit” and low appraisals. The median existing-home price in April was $167,700, 5% below the April 2010 level.
U.S. initial jobless claims plunged by 29,000 to 409,000 last week. The 4-week moving average is now at 439,000, a 1,250 increase. Last week’s jobless claims number was revised higher to 438,000.
U.S. housing starts unexpectedly decreased 10.6% (month-over-month) in April to an annual rate of 523,000. This level is 23.9% below the revised April 2010 rate of 687,000. Single-family starts decreased 5.1% to a rate of 394,000. The south was hit the hardest, with starts decreasing 23%, due to to the flooding of the Mississippi river and tornadoes. Oversupply in the housing market has also stalled demand for new buildings. March housing starts were revised higher to a rate of 585,000.
U.S. industrial production was unchanged (month-over-month) in April. Manufacturing production dropped 0.4 percent following a rise for nine consecutive months. Motor vehicle assemblies decreased from 9.0 million units in March to 7.9 million units in April due to parts shortages that resulted from the earthquake in Japan. Not including motor vehicles and parts, factory production increased 0.2 percent in April. The output of mines and utilities rose 0.8% and 1.7%, respectively.
Eurozone CPI increased 0.6% (month-over-month) in April. The final data was unchanged. Year-over-year, CPI in April rose 2.8%, the highest since October 2008. Even excluding volatile energy and food prices, the core inflation rate was 1.8% higher than a year ago. This suggests that more tightening measures are to come when the European Central Bank meets in the next couple of months.
U.S. CPI rose 0.4% (month-over-month) in April. The increase was primarily due to a 2.2% jump in the energy index as gas prices rose 3.3%. The energy index accounted for nearly half of the all-items increase. A 0.5% increase in the food at home index also supported the increase. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, rose 0.2%. In the last 12 months, the all items index has risen 3.2%.
Eurozone GDP rose 0.8% (quarter-over-quarter) in the first quarter. From preliminary estimates, the first quarter was better than expected and more than double the growth of the previous quarter. Germany and France led the way, growing 1.5% and 1.0%, respectively. Greece, surprisingly, rose 0.8%, its first increase since 2009. Portugal, however, fell by 0.7%.
U.S. retail sales increased 0.5% (month-over-month) in April to $389.4 billion. This is the smallest monthly gain in 9-months. Sales at service stations led the way, gaining 2.7% due to higher gasoline prices. Food and beverage stores sales gained 1.2%. Furniture and electronic store sells fell 1.1% and 2.2%, respectively. This level is 7.6 percent above the level in April 2010. March sales figures were revised higher to a 0.9% gain.
U.S. initial jobless claims plummeted by 44,000 to 434,000 last week. The 4-week moving average is now at 436,500, a 4,000 increase. Last week’s jobless claims number was revised higher to 478,000.
U.S. producer price index rose 0.8% (month-over-month) in April for the 10th consecutive month. The rise was mainly attributed to higher energy prices. About three quarters of the increase in the PPI was due to a 2.5% jump in prices for finished energy goods. More than half of the finished energy goods increase came from the gasoline index, which climbed 3.6%.
Eurozone industrial production fell 0.2% (month-over-month) in March. Production of both durable and intermediate goods grew by 0.1%. However, production of both non-durable goods and energy fell by 0.7%. Monetary policy tightening in China, India, and Brazil and a stronger euro – which has made exporting more difficult – contributed to the decline.
German CPI rose 0.2% (month-over-month) in April. The final data was unchanged. Year-over-year, CPI in April rose 2.4%, the largest increase since September 2008. This is the third consecutive month that the rate was above 2%. Nearly half of the increase was due to energy prices, which rose 10.5% year-over-year.
China producer price index rose 6.8% (year-over-year) in April. This is 0.5 percentage points lower than March’s 7.3% year-over-year price increase. Month-over-month, PPI in April rose 1.0%.
China retail sales rose 17.1% (year-over-year) in April to 1,364.9 billion yuan. This is 0.3 percentage points lower than March’s 17.4% year-over-year increase. Month-over-month, retail sales in April rose 1.35%.
China industrial production rose 13.4% (year-over-year) in April. This is 1.4 percentage points lower than the 14.8% year-over-year increase seen in March. China’s heavy industry rose 14.0% while its light industry increased 11.9%. Month-over-month, industrial production in April rose 0.93%.
China CPI rose 5.3% (year-over-year) in April. This is 0.1 percentage points lower than the 32-month year-over-year high seen in March. Food prices increased by 11.5% while non-food prices rose 2.7%. Month-over-month, CPI in April rose 0.1%. China’s inflation remains above the governments desired 4% rate.
China trade balance in April was a surplus of $11.43 billion. The rise was attributed to a larger growth in exports, which rose 29.9% year-over-year to a record high of $155.69 billion. Imports grew at a slower pace of 21.8%. Trade with the European Union, China’s largest trade partner, and the United States rose 23.5% and 24.8%, respectively.
U.S. unemployment rose to 9.0% in April. Discouraged workers increased to 989,000 in April from 921,000 the previous month. Non-farm payrolls, however, increased by a robust 244,000. Private payrolls jumped by 268,000. The retail sector showed the strongest growth, adding 57,100 jobs. On the other side, the government cut 24,000 positions.
U.S. initial jobless claims surged by 43,000 to 474,000 last week. The 4-week moving average is now at 431,500, a 22,250 increase. Last week’s jobless claims number was revised higher to 431,000.
Eurozone retail sales disappointingly fell 1.0% (month-over-month) in March. Year-over-year, retail sales fell 1.7%, the largest decline since November 2009. Consumption was weighed down due to high energy and food prices. Portugal faced the largest decline, falling 4.7% due to strict austerity measures. Germany also took a hit, declining 2.1% month-over-month. February retail sales were upwardly revised from a decline of 0.1% to an increase of 0.3%.
Eurozone unemployment remained unchanged at 9.9% in March. Eurostat estimated that 15.596 million were unemployed in March, 9000 less than in February. Among the eurozone countries, the Netherlands recorded the lowest rate at 4.2% while Spain had the highest rate at 20.7%.
U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly shot up by 25,000 to 429,000 last week. The 4-week moving average is now at 408,500, a 9,250 increase. Last week’s jobless claims number was revised higher to 404,000.
U.S. GDP rose at an annual rate of 1.8% (quarter-over-quarter) in the first quarter. The U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace than economists expected. This is in part due to a sharp rise in imports, which rose 4.4% after experiencing a 12.6% drop in the fourth quarter.
U.S. durable goods orders rose $5.0 billion or 2.5% (month-over-month) in March to $208.4 billion. This is the third straight month that orders have increased after orders in February were upwardly revised to a gain of 0.7%. Transportation equipment posted the largest increase, rising $3.1 billion (5.9%) to $54.7 billion.
The FOMC announced that it will maintain the federal funds rate at 0 to .25%. In its latest two-day meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep short-term interest rates unchanged. The FOMC believes the economic recovery is continuing at a “moderate pace” and that the labor market is “improving gradually.” There is concern, however, with the housing sector, investment in nonresidential structures, and the significant rise in commodity prices. The FOMC, though, believes longer-term inflation expectations remain stable.
U.S. consumer confidence rose 1.6 points (month-over-month) in April to 65.4. The Present Situation Index improved to 39.6 from 37.5. The Expectations Index rose to 82.6 from 81.3. March CCI was revised higher to 63.8.
The European Central Bank will lift its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%. This change will come into effect on April 13th. The deposit and marginal lending rates will also increase by the same amount to .50% and 2%, respectively. This is the first time since July 2008 that the ECB has raised its rates. The decision, however, is causing some concern as nations such as Portugal and Spain are still struggling to recover.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 13,000 to 403,000 last week. The 4-week moving average is now at 399,000, a 2,250 increase. Last week’s jobless claims number was revised higher to 416,000.
U.S. housing starts rebounded 7.2% (month-over-month) in March to an annual rate of 549,000. This level is 13.4% below the March 2010 rate of 634,000. Single-family starts increased 7.7% to a rate of 422,000. The weak home-building industry is due to an inventory glut of used homes. Housing-starts in February were upwardly revised to an annual rate of 512,000.
U.S. industrial production increased 0.8 percent (month-over-month) in March. Manufacturing output, which accounts for 75% of the total, jumped 0.7%. The output of mines and utilities rose 0.6% and 1.7%, respectively.
U.S. CPI climbed 0.5% (month-over-month) in March. The increase was primarily due to a 3.5% jump in the energy index as gas prices rose 5.6%. A 1.1% increase in the food at home index also supported the increase. Core CPI rose a meager 0.1%. In the last 12 months, the all items index has risen 2.7 percent.
U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 412,000 last week. The 4-week moving average is now at 395,750, a 5,500 increase from last week’s revised average of 390,250.
U.S. producer price index rose 0.7% (month-over-month) in March. The rise was mainly attributed to higher energy prices. Over 80% of last month’s increase was due to the gasoline index, which shot up 5.7%. The “core” producer price index, which does not include volatile food and energy, increased 0.3%.
China GDP rose 9.7% (year-over-year) in the first quarter. China’s economy is still growing strongly despite efforts to keep inflationary pressure low. The secondary industry led the way, increasing by 11.1 percent while the tertiary and primary industries expanded 9.1% and 3.5%, respectively. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was 2.1%.
Eurozone industrial production rose 0.4% (month-over-month) in February. Non-durable consumer goods grew by 0.9% while capital goods rose 0.6%. Production of energy, however, declined by 0.6%.
U.S. retail sales increased 0.4 percent (month-over-month) in March to $389.3 billion. This is the ninth consecutive rise in monthly retail sales. This month was largely supported by gasoline sales, which represented roughly 11 percent of overall sales in March. The increase in spending was also due to the temporary payroll tax cut, wage gains, and a healthier labor market. This level is 7.1 percent above the level in March 2010.
The German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment fell 6.5 points (month-over-month) in April to 7.6. This index measures the expected economic development in Germany in the next six months. Survey takers are unsure whether Germany can maintain its high pace of growth due to the ECB rate hike, the catastrophe in Japan and the uncertainty in the Arab world. This month’s reading is significantly below the indicator’s historical average of 26.6 points.
China’s trade balance in March was a surplus of $140 million. Economists were expecting a trade deficit of $3.35 billion after China posted a $7.3 billion deficit in February. Exports rose 35.8 percent while imports rose 27.3% from a year earlier. China, however, did record a first quarter trade deficit of $1.02 billion, its first since 2004. This was primarily due to rising commodity prices.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 382,000 last week. The 4-week moving average is now at 389,500, a 5,750 drop from last week’s revised average of 395,250. Last week’s number was revised higher to 392,000.
The Peoples Bank of China will lift its interest rates by 25 basis points. Starting April 6th, the deposit rate will be 3.25% and the lending rate will be 6.31%. This is the fourth time in sixth months that the PBOC has raised its rates in order to combat inflationary pressures.
Eurozone retail sales fell 0.1% (month-over-month) in February. Food, drinks, tobacco remained stable while non-food products (except automotive fuel) declined 0.1%.
U.S. existing-home sales rose 3.7% (month-over-month) in March to an annual rate of 5.10 million. This level is 6.3 percent below the rate in March 2010; sales were artificially high between March and June 2010 due to a home buyer tax credit. The rise in sales this month was due to an increasing amount of jobs and cheap home prices. The national median existing-home price was $159,600, 5.9% below the March 2010 level. Tight mortgage credit conditions, however, continue to offset gains.
U.S. initial jobless claims decreased by 6,000 to 388,000 last week. The 4-week moving average is now at 394,250, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 391,000.
The Japan Tankan Survey, for the most part, improved (quarter-over-quarter) in the first quarter. The data in this survey, however, does not accurately reflect the sentiment of the manufacturers due to the earthquake occurring after majority of the polling was done.
U.S. consumer confidence fell 8.6 points (month-over-month) in March to 63.4. The Present Situation Index improved to 36.9 from 33.8. The Expectations Index, however, plummeted to 81.1 from 97.5 last month.
U.S. existing-home sales decreased 9.6 percent (month-over-month) in February to an annual rate of 4.88 million. The national median existing-home price was $156,000, 5.2% below the February 2010 level. Despite better housing affordability, the drop in sales is due to continued tight mortgage credit conditions.
U.S. industrial production declined 0.1% (month-over-month) in February. The output of utilities fell 4.5% due to unseasonably warm weather which reduced the demand for heating. Manufacturing output increased 0.4 percent and the output of mines rose 0.8 percent. Compared to February of 2010, total IP was up 5.6 percent. The capacity utilization rate for total industry was 76.3 percent, 4.2 percentage below its average from 1972 to 2010.
U.S. CPI climbed 0.5% (month-over-month) in February. The increase was primarily due to a 3.4% rise in the energy index. Significant price increases in the indexes for fresh vegetables and meats also supported the increase.
U.S. retail sales increased 1.0% (month-over-month) in February to $387.1 billion. The increase was helped by a declining jobless rate and cuts in payroll taxes. Higher gasoline prices also contributed to the rise (purchases at filling stations are included in the retail sales report). This level is 8.9 percent above the level in February 2010.
